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Quant geeks handicap the election

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An highly quantitative approach to state by state poll analysis. This is a meta-analysis directed at the question of who would win the Electoral College if the election were held today. Meta-analysis provides more objectivity and precision than looking at one or a few polls, and in the case of election prediction gives a more accurate current snapshot. Backup site here. These calculations are based on all available state polls, with an emphasis on likely voter data that include Nader where he is on the ballot. Three or more recent polls (up to seven days old) for each state are averaged and the standard error of the mean is used to calculate the probability of every combination of possible state results. The map is not identical to the median. Results are defined as not statistically significant (n.s.) if the probability is less than between 5% and 95%. The effects of turnout are not included, but can be calculated using the bias analysis.

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